{"id":10120,"date":"2011-05-16T11:06:10","date_gmt":"2011-05-16T08:06:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.imobiliare.ro\/?p=10120_db\/"},"modified":"2011-05-16T11:06:10","modified_gmt":"2011-05-16T08:06:10","slug":"a-iesit-romania-cu-adevarat-din-recesiune-ce-se-intampla-cu-piata-imobiliara-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.imobiliare.ro\/imoexpert\/a-iesit-romania-cu-adevarat-din-recesiune-ce-se-intampla-cu-piata-imobiliara-2_db\/","title":{"rendered":"A ie\u015fit Rom\u00e2nia cu adev\u0103rat din recesiune? Ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 cu pia\u0163a imobiliar\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"

De\u015fi evolu\u0163ia pozitiv\u0103 a PIB \u00een ultimele dou\u0103 trimestre d\u0103 motive de bucurie, exist\u0103 \u015fi voci care \u00eendeamn\u0103 la precau\u0163ie \u00een interpretarea acesteia. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Potrivit datelor oficiale, economia Rom\u00e2niei a ie\u015fit din recesiune<\/a>. Teoretic, cel pu\u0163in. Dup\u0103 cum arat\u0103 un raport publicat de Institutul Na\u0163ional de Statistic\u0103 (INS), Produsul intern brut (PIB) al \u0163\u0103rii s-a majorat pentru al doilea trimestru consecutiv – ceea ce ar echivala cu intrarea economiei pe un trend ascendent. Astfel, \u00een primul trimestru din 2011 valoarea PIB a fost cu 0,6% mai mare dec\u00e2t cea \u00eenregistrat\u0103 \u00een trimestrul al patrulea din 2010 (date ajustate sezonier). Pe de alt\u0103 parte, avansul consemnat \u00een ultimele trei luni ale anului trecut fa\u0163\u0103 de trimestrul precedent a fost de 0,1%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 poate fi rezultatul \u015fi unor factori externi<\/strong>
\n\u00cen ce m\u0103sur\u0103 pot respira rom\u00e2nii u\u015fura\u0163i la g\u00e2ndul c\u0103 perioada de criz\u0103 s-a \u00eencheiat? Radu Zili\u015fteanu, analist imobiliar \u015fi doctor \u00een economie, \u00eendeamn\u0103 la precau\u0163ie \u00een interpretarea acestor date. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, apreciaz\u0103 acesta, cre\u015fterea de doar 0,1% a PIB din trimestrul al patrulea din 2010 a fost una \u201edubioas\u0103\u201d. Apoi, criteriul cre\u015fterii acestui indicator \u00een dou\u0103 trimestre consecutive nu este suficient pentru a decreta ie\u015firea din recesiune. Spre exemplu, alte \u0163\u0103ri iau \u00een considerare majorarea anual\u0103 a PIB sau raporteaz\u0103 acest indicator la perioada similar\u0103 a anului precedent. De asemenea, mai sunt lua\u0163i \u00een considerare \u015fi al\u0163i indicatori macroeconomici, cum ar fi nivelul consumului sau al \u015fomajului.<\/p>\n

Un alt aspect demn de luat \u00een seam\u0103 \u0163ine de natura elementelor care au stopat sc\u0103derea PIB \u00een ultimele dou\u0103 trimestre. Potrivit lui Zili\u015fteanu, o evolu\u0163ie clar pozitiv\u0103 au avut-o produc\u0163ia industrial\u0103 \u015fi exporturile, \u00eens\u0103 ambii indicatori au putut fi influen\u0163a\u0163i de factori externi, ca urmare a revenirii economice a altor \u0163\u0103ri din regiune. \u201eNu au fost ni\u015fte factori interni, ni\u015fte m\u0103suri proactive ale Guvernului care s\u0103 asigure cre\u015fterea economic\u0103. Aceste date vor trebui validate de evolu\u0163ia ulterioar\u0103 a PIB\u201d, subliniaz\u0103 Zili\u015fteanu. \u00cen opinia acestuia, \u00een economia rom\u00e2neasc\u0103 mai sunt multe probleme de rezolvat, \u00eencrederea rom\u00e2nilor \u00een aceasta situ\u00e2ndu-se \u00eenc\u0103 la un nivel foarte sc\u0103zut.<\/p>\n

Pe drumul spre ie\u015fire, dar nu \u00eenc\u0103 la cap\u0103t<\/strong>
\nO viziune precaut\u0103 asupra situa\u0163iei economice a \u0163\u0103rii o are \u015fi Ilias Papageorgiadis, CEO al companiei de consultan\u0163\u0103 imobiliar\u0103 More Real Estate Services. Acesta este de p\u0103rere c\u0103, \u00een momentul de fa\u0163\u0103, cre\u015fterea PIB este \u00eenc\u0103 fragil\u0103. \u201eRom\u00e2nia se afl\u0103 pe drumul de ie\u015fire din recesiune, \u00eens\u0103 nu a dep\u0103\u015fit \u00eenc\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103\u201d, spune el. \u00cen opinia lui Papageorgiadis, anul acesta PIB va avea o evolu\u0163ie pozitiv\u0103, iar dac\u0103 la nivel mondial nu vor exista factori care s\u0103 trag\u0103 din nou economia \u00een jos, \u015fi \u0163ara noastr\u0103 va dep\u0103\u015fi anul acesta perioada de criz\u0103<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Care sunt, \u00een acest context, previziunile pentru pia\u0163a imobiliar\u0103 autohton\u0103? Ilias Papageorgiadis crede c\u0103 2011 va fi un an mai bun pentru real estate dec\u00e2t cel precedent, lucrurile vor sta \u00eenc\u0103 \u015fi mai bine \u00een 2012, \u00eens\u0103 un an cu adev\u0103rat bun va fi 2013. Semnale concrete de cre\u015ftere vor fi resim\u0163ite \u00een real estate \u00een luna septembrie a acestui an, dup\u0103 care lucrurile vor continua s\u0103 se \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163easc\u0103 dac\u0103 totul va merge bine \u015fi pe plan global.<\/p>\n

Cre\u015fterea volumului de tranzac\u0163ii, proba de foc pentru real estate<\/strong>
\n\u00cen opinia lui Zili\u015fteanu, pia\u0163a imobiliar\u0103 va ie\u015fi din recesiune cu \u015fase luni-un an dup\u0103 reluarea unui trend economic ascendent sus\u0163inut. Acesta spune c\u0103 declinul economic a \u00eenceput cu circa \u015fase luni dup\u0103 declan\u015farea crizei din pia\u0163a imobiliar\u0103 (octombrie-noiembrie 2008, fa\u0163\u0103 de aprilie 2008), iar la revenire evolu\u0163ia va fi invers\u0103.<\/p>\n

Ce va marca, la modul concret, revigorarea real estate-ului autohton? Exist\u0103 doi parametri fundamentali care trebuie lua\u0163i \u00een considerare: nivelul pre\u0163urilor \u015fi volumul de tranzac\u0163ii. De la \u00eenceputul acestui an, se simte o stabilizare \u00een ceea ce prive\u015fte pre\u0163urile<\/a>, precum \u015fi o cre\u015ftere a interesului poten\u0163ialilor cump\u0103r\u0103tori. \u201eSe simte o u\u015foar\u0103 revenire a \u00eencrederii, ceea ce este un semn bun, dar nu garanteaz\u0103 o ie\u015fire rapid\u0103 din recesiune\u201d, spune Zili\u015fteanu. De revigorarea real\u0103 a pie\u0163ei se va putea vorbi \u00een momentul \u00een care \u015fi num\u0103rul tranzac\u0163iilor va cre\u015fte semnificativ.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De\u015fi evolu\u0163ia pozitiv\u0103 a PIB \u00een ultimele dou\u0103 trimestre d\u0103 motive de bucurie, exist\u0103 \u015fi voci care \u00eendeamn\u0103 la precau\u0163ie \u00een interpretarea acesteia. Potrivit datelor oficiale, economia Rom\u00e2niei a ie\u015fit din recesiune. Teoretic, cel pu\u0163in. Dup\u0103 cum arat\u0103 un raport publicat de Institutul Na\u0163ional de Statistic\u0103 (INS), Produsul intern brut (PIB) al \u0163\u0103rii s-a majorat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":829,"featured_media":10121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[360,857,366,772,855],"content_author":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10120","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"tag-criza","8":"tag-ilias-papgeorgiadis","9":"tag-ins","10":"tag-pib","11":"tag-radu-zilisteanu"},"yoast_head":"\nA ie\u015fit Rom\u00e2nia cu adev\u0103rat din recesiune? 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