{"id":17856,"date":"2012-03-05T10:24:03","date_gmt":"2012-03-05T07:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/businessday.ro\/?p=33340"},"modified":"2012-03-05T10:24:03","modified_gmt":"2012-03-05T07:24:03","slug":"cat-de-accesibile-au-devenit-locuintele-in-romania-o-comparatie-salarii-versus-preturi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.imobiliare.ro\/imoexpert\/cat-de-accesibile-au-devenit-locuintele-in-romania-o-comparatie-salarii-versus-preturi_db\/","title":{"rendered":"Cat de accesibile au devenit locuintele in Romania? O comparatie salarii versus preturi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Preturile pe piata imobiliara scad continuu de cel putin trei ani si jumatate, insa pentru a avea o imagine de ansamblu asupra nivelului la care s-a ajuns in acest moment, trebuie sa raportam preturile la salarii. Cum a evoluat raportul “pret\/salariu” in ultimii ani si la ce ar trebui sa ne asteptam in anii urmatori?<\/p>\n

Raportul pret\/salariu la nivel national<\/h1>\n

Potrivit indicelui imobiliar calculat de Eurobank (mai multe detalii la sfarsitul articolului), pretul mediu al locuintelor la nivel national in T4.11 a fost de 49.646 euro, in scadere cu 9% fata de T4.10, si cu 40% fata de maximul atins inainte de criza, respectiv 81.862 euro in T3.08. Calculat in lei, pretul mediu a scazut cu 30%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In acelasi timp insa, daca luam in calcul salariul mediu pe economie, pretul mediu al locuintelor a scazut de la echivalentul a 175 salarii medii brute lunare in 2008, la echivalentul a 97 salarii medii in ultimul trimestru din anul trecut, scaderea reala fiind astfel de 45%.<\/p>\n

Evolutia raportului pret\/salariu intre 2005 si 2011 se poate observa in graficul alaturat, click pe imagine pentru marire. Practic, in acest moment, raportul a ajuns la nivelul din 2004, bula imobiliara incepand sa se umfle de prin 2003<\/span><\/a><\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Raportul pret\/salariu in Bucuresti<\/h1>\n

In Bucuresti (+Ilfov), pretul mediu al unei locuinte a fost anul trecut de 72.073, in scadere cu 46% fata de anul 2008, cand pretul mediu a fost de 133.111 euro. In lei, scaderea este de 38%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Mai departe, potrivit Comisie Nationale de Prognoza, anul trecut, salariul mediu brut in Bucuresti a fost de 642 euro, raportul pret\/salariu ajungand astfel la 112, in scadere de la 208 in 2007, scaderea reala fiind de 56%, detalii in graficul alaturat.<\/p>\n

In acest moment, in Bucuresti, pretul mediu al unei locuinte reprezinta echivalentul salariului mediu brut pe 9 ani si 4 luni, fata de 17 ani si 4 luni in 2007, si 13 ani in 2005.<\/p>\n

La ce sa ne asteptam in anii urmatori?<\/h1>\n

Dupa cum se poate observa in cele doua grafice de mai sus, raportul “pret\/salariu” este sub cel din 2005, iar daca in 2012, preturile se vor reduce cu 5-10%, iar veniturile vor creste cu 5-10% vom ajunge practic la un raport similar celui din 2003, adica vom ajunge la nivelul inregistrat in momentul in care bula imobiliara a inceput sa se umfle.<\/p>\n

In aceste conditii, ne putem astepta la o continuare a scaderii preturilor, la o stagnare, sau la inceputul unui nou trend de crestere?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In mod normal, din moment ce raportul “pret\/salariu” se afla aproape de momentul de inceput al bulei imobiliare, mult mai probabila este o stagnare a preturilor, sau chiar inceputul unui nou trend de crestere, insa in realitate, lucrurile sunt mai complicate, pentru ca evolutia preturilor nu depinde doar de venituri, ci si de evolutia numarului de salariati, de evolutia creditarii, de sumele trimise in tara de cei care lucreaza in strainatate si nu in ultimul rand, de evolutia numarului de locuitori.<\/p>\n

1.<\/strong> Numarul de salariati<\/strong>: de cand a inceput criza, numarul oficial al salariatilor a scazut cu peste 10%, ceea ce inseamna mai putine persoane care realizeaza venituri, deci o scadere a cererii solvabile.<\/p>\n

2.<\/strong> Evolutia creditarii<\/strong>: in acest moment, ponderea persoanelor cu credite este mult mai mare decat in urma cu 5-6 ani, iar asta inseamna ca numarul celor care pot lua credite este mai mic. In plus, bancile acorda acum credite mult mai greu decat inainte de criza.<\/p>\n

3.<\/strong> Sumele trimise in tara<\/strong>: banii romanilor care muncesc in strainatate au contribuit din plin la cresterea preturilor pe piata imobiliara, insa in ultimii ani, sumele au scazut foarte mult: daca in 2006-2008, in tara intrau anual 5-6 miliarde euro, in 2011 suma a scazut la 3,6 miliarde euro, iar in conditiile in care piata muncii din Italia si Spania nu isi va reveni in urmatorii ani, sumele trimise in tara vor continua sa fie mai mici decat inainte de criza.<\/p>\n

4.<\/strong> Numarul de locuitori<\/strong>: in ultimii 20 ani, sporul natural a fost negativ<\/span><\/strong><\/a>, ceea ce inseamna ca numarul nou-nascutilor a fost mai mic decat cel al persoanelor care au decedat. Or, daca populatia scade, pe termen lung, cererea nu are cum sa creasca.<\/p>\n

Prin urmare, in conditiile in care veniturile cresc, iar cea mai mare parte a bulei speculative a fost deja anulata de scaderile din 2008-2011, este greu de crezut ca preturile se vor reduce semnificativ de acum inainte, la fel de greu de crezut fiind insa si ca preturile vor creste, cel putin pe termen scurt si mediu (2-3 ani).<\/p>\n

Mult mai probabil este o relativa stagnare la nivelul intregii piete, cresterile sau scaderile avand loc izolat, doar pe anumite segmente de piata.<\/p>\n

Nota<\/strong>: pentru a vedea evolutia preturilor (in format excel) intre 2005 si 2011 click aici<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, <\/span>metodologia de calcul fiind disponibila aici<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/span>. Am solicitat EFG Eurobank Property Services mai multe informatii, iar datele transmise arata ca, in calculul preturilor medii la nivel national intra circa 1.200 de evaluari trimestriale, aproximativ 20% dintre acestea provenind din Bucuresti. Tot in ce priveste preturile la nivel national, ponderea oraselor mari (peste 200.000 de locuitori) este de 49%, in timp ce orasele cu mai putin de 200.000 locuitori + mediul rural au o pondere de 51%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Preturile pe piata imobiliara scad continuu de cel putin trei ani si jumatate, insa pentru a avea o imagine de ansamblu asupra nivelului la care s-a ajuns in acest moment, trebuie sa raportam preturile la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":904,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[263,259],"tags":[318,601,431,323,726],"content_author":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17856","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-credite","7":"category-stiri","8":"tag-imobiliare","9":"tag-locuinte","10":"tag-piata-imobiliara","11":"tag-preturi","12":"tag-venituri"},"yoast_head":"\nCat de accesibile au devenit locuintele in Romania? 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